Will Kunimorishu's Campaign to Unseat Toshihiro Nikai Succeed?

* This article was written on August 26, 2021; details may have changed since. Updated October 6, 2021.

Kunimorishu's Campaign Against Secretary-General Nikai

Kunimorishu is a civil defence organization formed at the call of Channel Sakura's Satoru Mizushima. What it is focusing on most is the campaign to unseat Toshihiro Nikai.

Toshihiro Nikai is a former secretary-general of the LDP, a very powerful figure within the party and a Diet member with strong ties to the Chinese Communist Party. He leads his own faction and is known as a prominent member of the so-called pro-China faction, accused by critics of selling out Japan's interests to China.

Fielding a Rival Candidate in Wakayama 3rd District

Kunimorishu was formed around 2019 but has not yet won any seats as a political group. Frankly, there were some doubts about whether it had the money and organization to contest national elections.

Even so, it decided to field a rival candidate in Wakayama 3rd District, where Nikai runs.

» Remarkably, leader Nana Honma ran in the 2021 Lower House election for Kunimorishu and Shinto Kunimori!

Kunimorishu is now pouring its energy into unseating Nikai in Wakayama 3rd District.

For conservative groups, what they see as the Nikai faction's betrayal of the nation is absolutely unforgivable. Because Nikai wields enormous power within the LDP, another problem is the atmosphere he creates in which ordinary Diet members cannot criticize China.

So, calling Nikai a “cancer on Japan,” Kunimorishu members are gathering in Wakayama from all over the country, determined that he must lose the next election.

Do Campaigns to Unseat Politicians Work?

Whether such campaigns are effective at all is questionable. Besides the possibility that he loses, it may have no effect whatsoever — or it may even backfire by strengthening local unity behind him.

You can't know until you try, but Kunimorishu is devoting considerable resources to this campaign, and it absolutely needs some kind of result.

What If It Backfires?

The worst case Kunimorishu would rather not imagine is that the campaign strengthens local unity, increases Nikai's votes and helps him win. If he gains votes instead of losing, morale could drop and future operations could suffer.

But they fight with a samurai-like spirit — bushido — rather than calculation or strategy, so they are unlikely to let up. All eyes will be on how it turns out.

If Nikai Loses

If Nikai were defeated by Kunimorishu — a private conservative group with no track record and no money — the shock would be immense. Pro-China lawmakers in Nagatacho would come to see Kunimorishu as something to fear and a real nuisance, and that is partly the aim.

His defeat could significantly weaken the pro-China faction in the balance of power, and could also change the stance of Komeito, likewise seen as pro-China, on China policy. In short, the momentum of pro-China policies might decline. That is how big an impact his defeat could have.

August 26, 2021 — sandragon965

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